Am I an idiot for making these bets?

ppeter · Jul 4, 2005

<TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 1 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

441) Annie Duke +9740

Risking 50.00 to Win 4,870.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER>

</PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 2 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

459) Gus Hansen +4303

Risking 100.00 to Win 4,303.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER>

</PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 3 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

461) Dan Harrington +4255

Risking 100.00 to Win 4,255.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER>

</PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 4 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

463) Phil Hellmuth +4078

Risking 100.00 to Win 4,078.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER>

</PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 5 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

467) Phil Ivey +3654

Risking 100.00 to Win 3,654.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER>

</PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 6 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

475) Tuan Le +9172

Risking 50.00 to Win 4,586.00 USD <CENTER>---</CENTER>

</PRE></TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#2b5580 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=540 bgColor=#d0d0d0 border=0 FGCOLOR="#ffffff"><TBODY><TR><TD>

Selection 7 : Poker
Odds to Make Final 9 -WSOP 2005
Odds to Make Final 9 - WSOP 2005 (ALL IN)

495) Daniel Negreanu +3870

Risking 100.00 to Win 3,870.00 USD

</PRE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></P>That is basically 600 to win $4k that at least ONE of these so-called "best poker players in the world" can make it to the final table. Of course, if two can actually make it, it is

arty:

RobFunk · Jul 4, 2005

I like it. Better than shooting for the stars with "to win it all"

Good luck with those ppeter

primetime21+ · Jul 4, 2005

i think you picked a good group, but those odds arent very good. Annie duke is an overrated player. most of her respect comes from being lederer's sister. and at 97-1 against a field of 6600 (and possibly more) is not close to what her true odds are.

As for the rest of them, the odds are similarly off considering the large field but if you got the money to blow on the chance of hitting some long shots ivey, hellmuth and negraneau would be the guys i would choose.

ppeter · Jul 4, 2005

Yeah, I totally regret taking Anne Duke, I got carried away and wanted a woman player. Pretty stupid of me.

peteep · Jul 5, 2005

In terms of pure odds/math, it is not a good bet. But it is a fun bet that won't hurt you too much. Good luck.

ppeter · Jul 5, 2005

peteep said:
In terms of pure odds/math, it is not a good bet. But it is a fun bet that won't hurt you too much. Good luck.

I know, I know. I am feeling quesy about this after further review. I didn't know there are like THREE THOUSAND entrants in this tourament. I bet all are pretty decent players too, otherwise who would front a $10k buyin and all the travel expenses. This was really, really stupid of me. Think Pinny will let me take it back?

ProPokerPlayer · Jul 5, 2005

If you hit 1 you get all your money back and then some right??? i'd ride those wagers with no prob...in fact if i had the jack id buy a half interest in em....harrington alone should be a winner, he almost always gets to the final table....behind that you got ivey, le and hellmuth. ive give all 3 of those a + money shot plus you have 2 others to boot....personally i think you hit at least 2 of those bets and 3 wouldnt shock me...hang in there!

ppeter · Jul 5, 2005

Man, I sure hope you are right. Thanks for the reassurance!

DeathEatsaCracker · Jul 5, 2005

ppeter said:
I know, I know. I am feeling quesy about this after further review. I didn't know there are like THREE THOUSAND entrants in this tourament. I bet all are pretty decent players too, otherwise who would front a $10k buyin and all the travel expenses. This was really, really stupid of me. Think Pinny will let me take it back?

More like 6000.

HinesWard86 · Jul 6, 2005

at least one big name will prolly make it. if i had the cash, id bet all the big name conservative players to do it.

ppeter · Jul 6, 2005

Man, I hope you are right, I really really do. What would the WSOP be without the likes of Helmuth, Negraneu, Ivy, etc. not on the final table? I hope the networks somehow "fix" it so the big names get some breaks, but who knows.

I am not liking my odds now that the field is so big. SIX THOUSAND?!? Come on. I remember the days when it was a couple hundred, and getting the $10k scratch together was a big deal for the average joe. Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't that mean the prize pool is SIXTY MILLION? Wholy crap.

:monsters-

DeathEatsaCracker · Jul 6, 2005

ppeter said:
I hope the networks somehow "fix" it so the big names get some breaks, but who knows.

Ummmm.......What?

Like the Harrington pick. My favorite player ever.

ppeter · Jul 6, 2005

I was just false hoping the big guns get a free pass of some sort--espn gets the wsop to put them on tables with chumps as long as possible.

DeathEatsaCracker · Jul 8, 2005

Believe me, I don't want to see some unknown internet clown win the Main Event. But, I would rather every pro get beat out on the first day than for ESPN to "fix" anything.

bblight · Jul 8, 2005

There are a ton of great on-line players in the WSOP. Each year, there are fewer of the old "name brand" pros making it to the final table, and more from the on-line ranks.

To be perfectly honest, I don't see any of your choices making it all the way.

Good luck!

ppeter · Jul 8, 2005

Forget making it to the final table, only one of my big name players even made it past the first day, and that it Gus Hanson, who is short stacked with 7300 chips. :sad3:

ppeter · Jul 8, 2005

Eleminated in 1st round:

Tuan Le
Daniel Negraneu

Still playing in 1st round but not doing very well(yet):
Phil Helmuth
Annie Duke
Dan Harrington

Yet to play:
Phil Ivey

Survived to second round
Gus Hansen (but only has 7300 chips)

NOT looking good for me. Better start :drink:

ppeter · Jul 9, 2005

ppeter said:
Eleminated in 1st round:

Tuan Le
Daniel Negraneu

Still playing in 1st round but not doing very well(yet):
Phil Helmuth
Annie Duke
Dan Harrington

Yet to play:
Phil Ivey

Survived to second round
Gus Hansen (but only has 7300 chips)

NOT looking good for me. Better start :drink:

Update: Looks like Helmuth, Harrington and Duke will survive the first round, and Helmuth is doing quite well, up around 50k chips. He may be an obnoxious fvck, but so far he is my best hope to make it to the final table :suomi: